2009 Playoff Guesses

First of all, I'd like to acknowledge the amazingness of last night's game. There have now been exciting one-game playoffs for three years in a row. Needless to say, I feel spoiled as a baseball fan. That game was a great one to watch, and hopefully the same will be said of games to come this October.

Now for the point of this post. Some might say that it is truly ridiculous to predict the winners of sporting events like I am about to, since there is no way of knowing exactly what will happen in the future. It is absolutely true that what I am about to predict is nothing more than an educated guess, and that each and every one of my predictions could easily prove to be false. That said, it is still entertaining at the very least to utilize what statistics we have in order to come up with an estimation of relative skill in baseball. If nothing else, this might at least determine how much predictive value these statistics may have. Who knows? Maybe one or two of my predictions will be true and I'll appear as if I'm actually intelligent :)

ALDS

New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins

If there is a lopsided matchup in the first round of the playoffs, most people would agree that this is it. The 103-59 Yankees are taking on the 87-76 Twins, who just squeaked into the playoffs last night. The statistics seem to agree with this notion. New York's pitching is not ridiculously superior to the Twins' pitching (though the Yankees do have the clear upper hand there), and the Twins' defense nearly matches that of the Yankees. The real difference in this matchup is the offense. The Yankees' lineup is significantly better, top to bottom, than the Twins', excluding Joe Mauer. The Twins just won't be able to get past the Yankees without Justin Morneau's bat in the lineup. My educated guess is that the Yankees will win this series in 4 games.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Boston Redsox

This should be an interesting series. Both teams are certainly capable of winning it, though there appears to be a clear mathematical favorite. The Boston Redsox, who were my preseason World Series favorites, are projected to beat the Angels fairly easily. In fact, there is hardly an area in which the Angels are better than the Redsox on paper, though the Redsox don't seem to be far superior by any measure. According to my calculations, the Redsox have about the same probability of winning their ALDS series as the Yankees have of winning theirs. Take caution, though: as I said before, anything can happen. Still, I am predicting that Boston will take this series 3 games to 1.

NLDS

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Both the Dodgers and the Cardinals are strong playoff teams. The two clubs are very close in a lot of ways. This matchup is closer than either of the AL matchups, and could come down to a fifth game. Both teams certainly have the ability to take the series. It just seems like St. Louis' starting pitching will put them over the top in this series. If they struggle in that department, though, the matchup could be very close. However, I will still pick the Cardinals in five.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies

This is by far the closest matchup of the four. By my calculations, the Rockies have a 51.1% chance of winning the series, which shows how ridiculously even the two teams appear to be. I think that if the Phillies' pitching staff can perform at their maximum capability, the Phillies will be able to take the series. However, for most of the year the Philadelphia bullpen has struggled, and 2008 ace Cole Hamels has been somewhat mediocre. Despite the addition of Cliff Lee and Pedro Martinez, and the emergence of J.A. Happ, I will go with the Rockies to pull off the 3-2 series victory.

I'll post again next week with LCS preditions and partial recaps of the LDS. By the way, if you would like to know how these predictions are being calculated, send me a message and I'll send the excel file when I get a chance. As always, comments are appreciated.