How Can We Measure Offensive Consistency?

With this decade in baseball winding down, a question that presents itself is: who were the most consistent and inconsistent hitters of the last decade? To answer this question, I decided to compare the standard deviations and inter-quartile ranges of several players' wOBAs from the past 10 seasons. If the process wasn't so tedious, believe me, I would have done many more. That said, this took a very long time, so only 35 of the most prominent hitters of the past decade were included. To qualify, a hitter must have had over 5000 PA since 2000. Also, for a season to be included in the analysis, the hitter must have had over 220 PA in that season. An overview of the results is shown in the chart below.



We go by IQR in this case because nearly all of the distributions are at least somewhat skewed, so IQR will be less affected by extreme outliers than standard deviation (Sx). A prime example of this is with our "most consistent hitter", Jeff Kent. According to IQR, he is by far the most consistent. Yet his Sx pegs him as merely average in terms of consistency. This discrepancy is mainly due to two seasons that fell far outside of his normal wOBA range. In 2000, his wOBA was .428, which led all Major League second basemen. This was by far his best offensive year, as his wOBA was 30 points higher than it was in any other season. For the next 7 years, however, Kent posted a wOBA between .367 and .398. He finally began to decline rapidly in 2008, when his wOBA dropped all the way down to .326 - nearly 50 points lower than his 2007 wOBA. Despite these two outlier seasons, we still can say that Kent was the most consistent hitter of the past decade.

He is followed by Mike Cameron and Torii Hunter, two outfielders who were consistently slightly above average for the past 10 years. Yet, the bottom line is that they were more consistent than stars such as Carlos Lee, Manny Ramirez, and Ichiro Suzuki (who weren't too inconsistent themselves.)

Now for the inconsistent hitters. Of the 35 in this group, Todd Helton leads the way. Don't misinterpret this as evidence against Helton's greatness as a hitter. The thing is, when you have seasons like he did in 2000, it's hard to appear consistent by any measure (this is part of the reason why Albert Pujols is ranked 25th in this group.) Such insane seasons as that are near impossible to replicate. In fact, the main difference between Helton and Pujols in this investigation is timing. Pujols has been in his prime for the majority of the past 10 years, while over the past few seasons, the decline of Todd Helton has begun.

Most of the inconsistent players in this sample are in fact in the midst of a decline. Jim Edmonds, Brian Giles, Jim Thome, Scott Rolen and others are prime examples of this.

The most consistent hitter with a median wOBA over .400 is Manny Ramirez. Whether this was done naturally, or with the help of performance enhancing drugs is a whole different conversation. Just as an interesting side note, though, the next most consistent player with a median wOBA of .400+ : Alex Rodriguez.

Hope you enjoyed this one. I'll be back next week with what will certainly be my most irrelevant post yet: playoff predictions. I guarantee, though, that there will be lots of statistics behind my educated guesses.

Just thought I'd share this...

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/why-do-we-care

I recently found this article written by Dave Cameron regarding his views on MVP award. Honestly, I couldn't have possibly said any of it better myself. I think this is certainly a point that should be recognized among sabermetricians: what is the use of arguing about yearly MLB awards, such as the MVP award, when these awards are hardly relevant at all to the actual game of baseball and our passion for it? In no way am I advocating the termination of the MVP award, but I do think that Cameron's point is a very good one.

The Joy of Excel

When I was in Middle School, I took a required course in Microsoft Excel. Of course, they didn't bother to teach us any of the really cool things about the application. All we really did was plug some numbers into a couple of columns and perform a few simple functions. The 12-year-old me would have never believed the amazing things one can do with this über-app.

Top 3 Things I've Recently Discovered About Excel

1. Its Amazing Formulaic Capabilities

Not only can you do basic things like summation, etc, but if you delve deeper into the functions menu, you'll find lots of different advanced operations. My favorite are the logical functions (if, then, etc.), which I've begun to use for constructing a projection formula.

2. Data Plotting and Analysis

Its graphing capabilities certainly very solid, and the ability to add a trendline and calculate the correlation is very useful in many ways. I've already utilized these functions in multiple posts in this blog.

3. Usefulness & Mac Compatibility

I use a Mac myself, and I have to say that the program works flawlessly and seamlessly on my computer.


OK sorry if this post was a downer after some of my recent essays, but I do have a legitimate excuse. My internet went down for an entire day late this week, and I was having trouble coming up with an idea in the first place, so i was set back quite a bit. But honestly, Excel needs some love here (absolutely no sarcasm.)

There will definitely be an extremely intense baseball post here next weekend, I promise :)

Runs and RBI: What Significance Do These Statistics Have?

A year or two ago, I had an argument with a friend of mine about two statistics - runs scored and runs batted in. As we know, they are both statistics that are heavily dependent on circumstance, though they are widely used to measure the skill of individual players in baseball. My friend proposed that runs are more indicative of a player's offensive skill than RBI, while I argued that the two statistics are equally unreliable when evaluating a player's skill. At the time, though, neither of us had the proof to back up our statements. Today, I will attempt to prove my assertion.

How is this possible, you ask? As you may know, wOBA (weighted on base average) is an accurate measure of a player's offensive production. For those of you unfamiliar with the stat, a full description can be found here. By plotting the wOBA of all qualified Major League hitters against their respective R and RBI totals, we can calculate the correlations, and determine if there is any difference between R and RBI in terms of significance. We can also determine how significant the stats really are, to some extent, in the big picture.

I gathered the statistics of all qualified hitters from the past three seasons and constructed two graphs for each year: Runs vs. wOBA and RBI vs. wOBA. The two graphs appear very similar in most respects. Here is a look at the two relationships in the 2009 season (as of 9/12/09.)



Again, there is not a significant difference between these two graphs in terms of correlation. The R squared values for the two relations are nearly equivalent (Runs: 0.426; RBI: 0.378.) A difference of 0.048 in this case is not significant; the two values are virtually the same. Looking at the R squared values from the past 3 seasons (shown below), we see that nothing much has changed in recent years.


The R squared value for both relations settles very close to 0.4. Given that there is a difference of only 0.03 between the three year averages of the two statistics' R squared values, we can safely say that neither is more indicative of true offensive production any more than the other. This also means that the runs scored and runs batted in statistics accurately demonstrate a player's true offensive output only 40% of the time, which is not high at all. To give some perspective on this matter, the relationship between OBP and wOBA in 2009 is shown below. Note that the R squared value is 0.748 - much higher than that of runs or RBI.


My hypothesis was correct: neither statistic - runs scored or RBI - is more indicative of a player's individual offensive production and skill. Furthermore, the unreliability of these statistics in player evaluation has been clearly proven.

Once again, thanks for reading. Any feedback is much appreciated!

September Call-Ups: Part 2

Happy Labor Day to everyone.

Listed below are a few players who were not named in my post last Thursday as players to watch, but deserve your attention nonetheless. These players may have been called up later in the week, or may have just slipped under my radar at the time. Anyway, there are some good young call-ups here. Hope you enjoy.


SP Wade Davis (TBR)

The 24-year-old righty was called up a few days ago and made his first Major League start against the Tigers on Sunday. Davis dazzled Detroit for 7 innings, giving up only 3 hits, 1 walk, and 1 run on an Aubrey Huff homerun. He struck out 9 and threw 105 pitches - 68 for strikes. Davis pitched to a 3.40 ERA in 28 games in AAA, and in 158.2 innings, his K/BB was 140/60. Davis could take over Andy Sonnastine's spot in the rotation for the rest of September, given how poorly Sonnastine has pitched. If Davis can limit his walks, he certainly has the potential to be a solid big league starting pitcher for the Rays of the future.


C Buster Posey (SFG)

The Giants' first round pick of 2008 was called up last week. He has not seen any playing time yet, but in all probability, he will end up behind the plate before too long. Posey began the season at A+, after spending limited time last year in the lower levels of the Giants' system. He played 80 games for San Jose, and held a .433 wOBA when he was promoted to AAA Fresno. There his wOBA was .390 in 35 games. He has shown very good offensive skills in only 542 minor league plate appearances, and also a very good eye at the plate. His BB/K over the past two years was 70/72. We will see if the 22-year-old catcher will be able to make the quick transition to the Major Leagues. Even if he struggles this month, though, he still has incredible potential, and figures to be the Giants' future catcher, as long as he can hold the position defensively.


OF Michael Brantley (CLE)

This speedster has already made his mark in 6 games with the Indians since being called up. He has hit .391 in 24 PA, and has already stolen one base in two tries. This isn't anything special for Brantley, however, as he has already stolen 46 bases in AAA this year. Brantley has not yet hit his first Major League extra base hit, and there may be some who question Brantley's readiness as a hitter for the Major Leagues. Yet, he is still only 22 years old, and has played in AAA the entire year. So even though he only managed a .344 wOBA in AAA, we expect his offensive skills to come along in time, since he has had more offensive success at lower levels (.375 in A; .356 in AA). We'll see what Brantley offers to the Indians in 2009 and beyond. He has looked promising so far.


Thanks for reading, and check back next weekend for a new post. The topic in currently undecided. i will announce it some time this week.

September Call-Ups: Players to Watch

As we enter September and Major League rosters expand to 40 players, teams will begin calling up their minor league players in order to help the team down the stretch, and also to get a look at their young talent at the Major League level. As the first wave of promotions is announced, some players stand out as ones to watch. Following is a compilation of the most interesting call-ups thus far at each position.

Starting Pitchers

There have not been too many interesting starting pitchers promoted yet. Some teams elect to wait until the end of the minor league season to call up certain players, so there may still be some higher-level starting pitchers called up in the coming days. That said, there have been a few players that have caught my eye. 26-year-old righty Brandon McCarthy could solidify Texas' pitching and give them a real shot at the wild card, or even the AL west. McCarthy is returning from injury - a stress fracture in his shoulder - and allowed 1 run over 6.1 innings in his first Major League start since June. He is not a sure thing at the Major League level by any means, at least at the present time, and being a flyball pitcher in Texas sure won't help him. That said, he is still a young pitcher who has had moderate success at the major league level in the past, and he could certainly help the Rangers, who can always use solid pitching.

It hardly counts as a September call-up, but Tim Hudson's return from Tommy John Surgery should be something to watch. He recorded a win in his first start of the season on Tuesday after pitching 5.1 innings and yielding 2 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks. Hudson is a 34-year-old righty who has seen much success in his career. If he can regain some of what he had prior to his surgery, then the Braves will certainly have a shot at the playoffs.

Relief Pitchers

The majority of pitching call-ups so far have been relievers. A fair amount are at the very least, of interest. Those include Brad Kilby, Guillermo Moscoso, Warner Madrigal, Waldis Joaquin, Joel Peralta, and Jack Taschner. However, possibly the most interesting of the relief pitcher call-ups is Edwar Ramirez of the New York Yankees. Ramirez was an important part of the Yankees' bullpen in 2008, but struggled mightily with his control early this season. He was sent to AAA in mid-May after walking 15 batters in 17.1 innings. However, in 51 innings for AAA, Ramirez pitched to a 2.82 BB/9 - nearly 5 BB/9 lower than the 7.79 he posted for the big league club. His strikeout and homerun rates both improved drastically as well, and it seems as he may have regained his 2008 form somewhere along the way in AAA. We'll see how he does in the majors - there's no denying that AAA is not the same as the AL East - but it does look like Ramirez has found his command again, which at the very least could mean that the Yankees' bullpen will receive some welcome help going into September and October.

Catcher

As a Mets' fan, I can personally tell you how painful it can be to watch the Mets right now. But like any team, they have their bright spots - reasons to keep watching. One reason the average fan might choose to continue watching the Mets at this point in the season is the call-up of catching prospect Josh Thole. The 22-year-old backstop hit .300 last year in high A, and this year, his batting average has improved to .328 in AA. He does not hit for much power at all, but as a 22-year-old catcher in A+ and AA, his ability to maintain a .372 wOBA is impressive. Another thing that is impressive about Thole is that his BB/K has been consistently above 1 over the past three years. Consequentially, his OBP has risen steadily since his professional debut in 2006. We'll see how he handles Major League pitching. He is scheduled to debut on Thursday against the Rockies.

First Base

With Russell Branyan on the DL, the Mariners have promoted Mike Carp, a 23-year-old first baseman who hit 15 HR with a .274 average in 109 AAA games this season. Carp was once a well-thought-of prospect in the Mets' system before they traded him to Seattle, and he still has a lot of potential, even though he has not hit as well this year as he did in 2008. regardless, he should get a significant amount of playing time at first base for the Mariners in September.

Second Base

White Sox rookie Chris Getz has returned from the 15-day DL, and has been reinstated as Chicago's second baseman. Getz has had a solid rookie season in 2009, hitting .267 over 90 games, with 23 extra-base hits. Although he is by no means a strong offensive player at this point in his career, it still should be interesting to see if Getz can wrap up his rookie campaign on a positive note, and if he can make the necessary adjustments to raise his .314 wOBA.

Third Base

Yes, we're going with a double dip on the Chi Sox. 3B Josh Fields also received a call-up to the White Sox in lieu of the roster expansions. Don't get me wrong: I don't think Josh Fields is as great a hitter as he may have been seen as after his 2007 rookie year. That .302 BABIP was bound to go down with such a low LD% (16.5%). Unless he improves his line drive rate, he will have a hard time staying afloat in the Major Leagues. Yet this is his opportunity to prove himself worthy of a spot on the White Sox in the future, and considering that his contract expires at the end of this season, this may be his last chance to prove his worth, at least as a member of this team.

Shortstop

The Angels don't seem to have much faith in Brandon Wood just yet, but he can't possibly evade this list with the way he has hit in the minors. Wood, 24, has hit 22 HR and 27 2B in 424 PA this year in AAA, with a .293 AVG. His .388 wOBA is actually down from his 2008 mark of .405. He certainly has made improvements this season, though. For instance, his strikeout rate - one of his major weaknesses - has decreased by 5.4%. Wood is capable of playing at short and third base, but he might not get a great deal of playing time, as the Angels are in a pennant race, and have a solid offensive structure in place. However, as for his future, it's only a matter of time before he figures things out at the Major League level.

Outfield

There have been two rather high-profile outfield call-ups so far - John Bowker and Cameron Maybin. One is getting publicity because of how well he is hitting, and the other, because of his poor hitting relative to his expectations. Bowker is an outfielder for the Giants who also plays first base. After debuting for the Giants last year and hitting .255 with 10 HR in 350 PA, Bowker returned to AAA in 2009 and completely tore the league's pitchers to shreds. His .447 wOBA led the Pacific Coast League, and his .340 AVG, 21 HR, 22 2B, 10 SB, and 1.14 BB/K are also impressive. Considering the Giants' current situation, Bowker could certainly see major playing time in September, whether at first base or in the outfield.

Marlins' center fielder Cameron Maybin is a different story. He came into the season with all sorts of insane expectations after going 16 for 32 last September. Then he went ahead and hit .200 in his first 27 games in 2009 and got himself sent down. He hit well - .319 - while in the minors, though he only racked up 3 HR and 8 SB in 82 games. The bottom line, though, is that Maybin is still very young (22), and has time to develop into a better player. He certainly has the skills to become a very good offensive player, and the fact that this is evident at such a young age is what makes his promotion so interesting.

Thanks a lot for reading...and if you are reading, I'd really appreciate some comments :)

Check back Sunday or Monday for a September Call-Ups update.

All links lead to FanGraphs player pages.