Well, we finally have our 2009 World Series matchup set, and it's time to once again attempt to see into the future. But first, how were the League Champions decided? Let's see...
ALCS
Prediction: Yankees over Angels, 4-1
Result: Yankees over Angels, 4-2
I wasn't too surprised to see the Angels put up a reasonable fight; they're a very good team. Still, this one wasn't too hard to pick. From the beginning it seemed like the Yankees were in complete control. They have the strongest team overall, and it'll be tough for any team to beat them at this point.
NLCS
Prediction: Dodgers over Phillies, 4-3
Result: Phillies over Dodgers, 4-1
I really thought this series was going to be much closer. The Phillies proved me wrong once again, as they overpowered the Dodgers in 5 games. Their offense is great, but their starting pitching has been the key to their success so far. Their bullpen is their weakness, but it did not hurt them in this series. The Dodgers just weren't able to stop the Phils.
World Series: Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Yankees
This looks like it could be a very interesting series, even to a Mets' fan (though I can't say I'm rooting for either team.) Both teams have shown their dominance throughout the first two rounds of the playoffs, though the two teams are very different. I think that in the end, the Yankees' offense will not be as easily stopped as the Philles' offense, and that this will give New York the slight edge. Keep in mind that if the Yankees go with a three-man rotation, two-thirds of that rotation is left handed. Though small, this factor certainly may have an impact on the production of the Phillies' heavily left-handed lineup. And although the Phillies' pitching has been very good so far, the Yankees are certainly a greater challenge than the Dodgers or the Rockies. I expect this series to be decided in six games in favor of the Yankees.
Thanks again for reading
Saturday, October 31, 2009
Thursday, October 15, 2009
LCS Previews and Predictions
I'll be somewhat surprised if anyone reads this at all. Maybe I had a few readers before the playoffs, but after I went one for four in my divisional series predictions, I suppose only the truly dedicated will continue reading. That's quite alright with me. I don't at all expect to be right 100% of the time. However, I have faith in the validity of my methods. I can only hope that people will agree with me, but I realize that some won't.
Before I get into the AL & NL Championship Series, I will take accountability for my previous predictions.
ALDS
Prediction: Yankees over Twins, 3-1
Result: Yankees over Twins, 3-0
This was my only successful prediction of the first round of the playoffs. This seemed to be perceived as the easiest series to predict. However, the Twins led in all three games and failed to come through each time. Minnesota's bullpen was simply unable to overcome the superior offense of the Yankees. It looks like New York will be a force to be reckoned with in these playoffs.
Prediction: Red Sox over Angels 3-1
Result: Angels over Red Sox 3-0
The Red Sox also had some late-game pitching troubles, but their offense is as much to blame for this loss as anyone. Their powerful lineup was seemingly dormant during the majority of this series, and the Angels took advantage. John Lackey and Jered Weaver both pitched gems in L.A, and the Angels' offense covered up for Kazmir in game 3 with some timely hitting. The result of this series is not a fair indicator of these two teams' relative skill. However, the Angels played better than the Red Sox three times in a row, and so they move on to face the Yankees.
ALCS: New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Angels
This series is an interesting one. The rain expected in New York could create pitching dilemmas for both teams. Right now, the Yankees are hoping to be able to go with a three-man rotation, but that could change with the weather. The difference in this series, though, should be the offense. If the Yankees' hitters don't fall asleep as the Red Sox did, then the Yankees should have a really good chance of overpowering the Angels. I'm going to predict that the Yankees will win this series in 5 games, though it's very possible that the series could end up much closer than that.
NLDS
Prediction: Cardinals over Dodgers, 3-2
Result: Dodgers over Cardinals, 3-0
Well, one thing you have to admit is that, with the exception of Adam Wainwright, the great Cardinal starting pitching didn't show up at all in this series, and when it did, the bullpen tripped up. At the same time, the Dodgers' starting pitchers were very sharp in this series, especially Vincente Padilla. If you honestly expected Vincente Padilla's WPA to be .317 higher than that of all three of the St. Louis starting pitchers combined in this series, then I commend you.
Prediction: Rockies over Phillies, 3-2
Result: Phillies over Rockies, 3-1
As I said, this series could have gone either way. The Rockies played alright, but the Phillies played really well, and that was honestly the difference. The trade for Cliff Lee certainly looks like a brilliant move right now.
NLCS: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
These two teams are very evenly matched. They are certainly two very different teams, but I think that this series will be a close one. According to my calculations, though, the Dodgers have the slight advantage. In this matchup, it appears as if Los Angeles' pitching will put them over the top. Philadelphia has a stronger offensive team, but the Dodgers' pitching may be able to do what the Rockies' pitchers could not. It must also be noted that Cliff Lee is currently scheduled to start games 3 and 7 because of his two starts in the NLDS. If this series comes down to a seventh game, Lee is certainly the man the Phillies will want on the mound. I will predict, though, that he won't be able to come through. My prediction is that the Dodgers will win this one in 7.
Thanks for reading =]
Before I get into the AL & NL Championship Series, I will take accountability for my previous predictions.
ALDS
Prediction: Yankees over Twins, 3-1
Result: Yankees over Twins, 3-0
This was my only successful prediction of the first round of the playoffs. This seemed to be perceived as the easiest series to predict. However, the Twins led in all three games and failed to come through each time. Minnesota's bullpen was simply unable to overcome the superior offense of the Yankees. It looks like New York will be a force to be reckoned with in these playoffs.
Prediction: Red Sox over Angels 3-1
Result: Angels over Red Sox 3-0
The Red Sox also had some late-game pitching troubles, but their offense is as much to blame for this loss as anyone. Their powerful lineup was seemingly dormant during the majority of this series, and the Angels took advantage. John Lackey and Jered Weaver both pitched gems in L.A, and the Angels' offense covered up for Kazmir in game 3 with some timely hitting. The result of this series is not a fair indicator of these two teams' relative skill. However, the Angels played better than the Red Sox three times in a row, and so they move on to face the Yankees.
ALCS: New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Angels
This series is an interesting one. The rain expected in New York could create pitching dilemmas for both teams. Right now, the Yankees are hoping to be able to go with a three-man rotation, but that could change with the weather. The difference in this series, though, should be the offense. If the Yankees' hitters don't fall asleep as the Red Sox did, then the Yankees should have a really good chance of overpowering the Angels. I'm going to predict that the Yankees will win this series in 5 games, though it's very possible that the series could end up much closer than that.
NLDS
Prediction: Cardinals over Dodgers, 3-2
Result: Dodgers over Cardinals, 3-0
Well, one thing you have to admit is that, with the exception of Adam Wainwright, the great Cardinal starting pitching didn't show up at all in this series, and when it did, the bullpen tripped up. At the same time, the Dodgers' starting pitchers were very sharp in this series, especially Vincente Padilla. If you honestly expected Vincente Padilla's WPA to be .317 higher than that of all three of the St. Louis starting pitchers combined in this series, then I commend you.
Prediction: Rockies over Phillies, 3-2
Result: Phillies over Rockies, 3-1
As I said, this series could have gone either way. The Rockies played alright, but the Phillies played really well, and that was honestly the difference. The trade for Cliff Lee certainly looks like a brilliant move right now.
NLCS: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
These two teams are very evenly matched. They are certainly two very different teams, but I think that this series will be a close one. According to my calculations, though, the Dodgers have the slight advantage. In this matchup, it appears as if Los Angeles' pitching will put them over the top. Philadelphia has a stronger offensive team, but the Dodgers' pitching may be able to do what the Rockies' pitchers could not. It must also be noted that Cliff Lee is currently scheduled to start games 3 and 7 because of his two starts in the NLDS. If this series comes down to a seventh game, Lee is certainly the man the Phillies will want on the mound. I will predict, though, that he won't be able to come through. My prediction is that the Dodgers will win this one in 7.
Thanks for reading =]
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
2009 Playoff Guesses
First of all, I'd like to acknowledge the amazingness of last night's game. There have now been exciting one-game playoffs for three years in a row. Needless to say, I feel spoiled as a baseball fan. That game was a great one to watch, and hopefully the same will be said of games to come this October.
Now for the point of this post. Some might say that it is truly ridiculous to predict the winners of sporting events like I am about to, since there is no way of knowing exactly what will happen in the future. It is absolutely true that what I am about to predict is nothing more than an educated guess, and that each and every one of my predictions could easily prove to be false. That said, it is still entertaining at the very least to utilize what statistics we have in order to come up with an estimation of relative skill in baseball. If nothing else, this might at least determine how much predictive value these statistics may have. Who knows? Maybe one or two of my predictions will be true and I'll appear as if I'm actually intelligent :)
ALDS
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins
If there is a lopsided matchup in the first round of the playoffs, most people would agree that this is it. The 103-59 Yankees are taking on the 87-76 Twins, who just squeaked into the playoffs last night. The statistics seem to agree with this notion. New York's pitching is not ridiculously superior to the Twins' pitching (though the Yankees do have the clear upper hand there), and the Twins' defense nearly matches that of the Yankees. The real difference in this matchup is the offense. The Yankees' lineup is significantly better, top to bottom, than the Twins', excluding Joe Mauer. The Twins just won't be able to get past the Yankees without Justin Morneau's bat in the lineup. My educated guess is that the Yankees will win this series in 4 games.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Boston Redsox
This should be an interesting series. Both teams are certainly capable of winning it, though there appears to be a clear mathematical favorite. The Boston Redsox, who were my preseason World Series favorites, are projected to beat the Angels fairly easily. In fact, there is hardly an area in which the Angels are better than the Redsox on paper, though the Redsox don't seem to be far superior by any measure. According to my calculations, the Redsox have about the same probability of winning their ALDS series as the Yankees have of winning theirs. Take caution, though: as I said before, anything can happen. Still, I am predicting that Boston will take this series 3 games to 1.
NLDS
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Both the Dodgers and the Cardinals are strong playoff teams. The two clubs are very close in a lot of ways. This matchup is closer than either of the AL matchups, and could come down to a fifth game. Both teams certainly have the ability to take the series. It just seems like St. Louis' starting pitching will put them over the top in this series. If they struggle in that department, though, the matchup could be very close. However, I will still pick the Cardinals in five.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies
This is by far the closest matchup of the four. By my calculations, the Rockies have a 51.1% chance of winning the series, which shows how ridiculously even the two teams appear to be. I think that if the Phillies' pitching staff can perform at their maximum capability, the Phillies will be able to take the series. However, for most of the year the Philadelphia bullpen has struggled, and 2008 ace Cole Hamels has been somewhat mediocre. Despite the addition of Cliff Lee and Pedro Martinez, and the emergence of J.A. Happ, I will go with the Rockies to pull off the 3-2 series victory.
I'll post again next week with LCS preditions and partial recaps of the LDS. By the way, if you would like to know how these predictions are being calculated, send me a message and I'll send the excel file when I get a chance. As always, comments are appreciated.
Now for the point of this post. Some might say that it is truly ridiculous to predict the winners of sporting events like I am about to, since there is no way of knowing exactly what will happen in the future. It is absolutely true that what I am about to predict is nothing more than an educated guess, and that each and every one of my predictions could easily prove to be false. That said, it is still entertaining at the very least to utilize what statistics we have in order to come up with an estimation of relative skill in baseball. If nothing else, this might at least determine how much predictive value these statistics may have. Who knows? Maybe one or two of my predictions will be true and I'll appear as if I'm actually intelligent :)
ALDS
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins
If there is a lopsided matchup in the first round of the playoffs, most people would agree that this is it. The 103-59 Yankees are taking on the 87-76 Twins, who just squeaked into the playoffs last night. The statistics seem to agree with this notion. New York's pitching is not ridiculously superior to the Twins' pitching (though the Yankees do have the clear upper hand there), and the Twins' defense nearly matches that of the Yankees. The real difference in this matchup is the offense. The Yankees' lineup is significantly better, top to bottom, than the Twins', excluding Joe Mauer. The Twins just won't be able to get past the Yankees without Justin Morneau's bat in the lineup. My educated guess is that the Yankees will win this series in 4 games.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Boston Redsox
This should be an interesting series. Both teams are certainly capable of winning it, though there appears to be a clear mathematical favorite. The Boston Redsox, who were my preseason World Series favorites, are projected to beat the Angels fairly easily. In fact, there is hardly an area in which the Angels are better than the Redsox on paper, though the Redsox don't seem to be far superior by any measure. According to my calculations, the Redsox have about the same probability of winning their ALDS series as the Yankees have of winning theirs. Take caution, though: as I said before, anything can happen. Still, I am predicting that Boston will take this series 3 games to 1.
NLDS
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Both the Dodgers and the Cardinals are strong playoff teams. The two clubs are very close in a lot of ways. This matchup is closer than either of the AL matchups, and could come down to a fifth game. Both teams certainly have the ability to take the series. It just seems like St. Louis' starting pitching will put them over the top in this series. If they struggle in that department, though, the matchup could be very close. However, I will still pick the Cardinals in five.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies
This is by far the closest matchup of the four. By my calculations, the Rockies have a 51.1% chance of winning the series, which shows how ridiculously even the two teams appear to be. I think that if the Phillies' pitching staff can perform at their maximum capability, the Phillies will be able to take the series. However, for most of the year the Philadelphia bullpen has struggled, and 2008 ace Cole Hamels has been somewhat mediocre. Despite the addition of Cliff Lee and Pedro Martinez, and the emergence of J.A. Happ, I will go with the Rockies to pull off the 3-2 series victory.
I'll post again next week with LCS preditions and partial recaps of the LDS. By the way, if you would like to know how these predictions are being calculated, send me a message and I'll send the excel file when I get a chance. As always, comments are appreciated.
Sunday, October 4, 2009
Tigers/Twins One Game Playoff
It's all tied up in the AL Central, and that means there'll be a one game playoff to determine the division winner. This also means I'm going to have to hold off on the playoff predictions until at least Tuesday. Hopefully Ill be able to get it up by Tuesday night, but if not, then expect it Wednesday for sure.
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