We all know that a .300 batting average is good, generally speaking. But can this number be deceptive sometimes? Of course. For example, a batter that hits .300 cannot normally be expected to keep that up if 50% of the balls this batter puts in play are ground balls. In this post, I'll use stats such as BABIP (batting average on balls in play) and line drive, fly ball, and ground ball percentages to uncover the luckiest and unluckiest hitters and pitchers in Major League Baseball.
In case you're unfamiliar with BABIP, I'll explain it briefly. This statistic measures a hitter's (or pitcher's) batting average (against) only on balls hit in play. So this does not factor in strikeouts, walks, or homeruns. A typical BABIP is usually around .290, so a number significantly lower or higher than that will raise a red flag. That's when one will look at batted ball percentages. A low BABIP and a high line drive (LD) % will suggest that a hitter is particularly unlucky, or that a pitcher is particularly lucky. A high BABIP and a low LD% will point to a lucky hitter or an unlucky pitcher. The average LD% in baseball in 2009 is about 19%. Anything 4 or 5% higher or lower than that would be worth noting.
Pitchers: The Fortunate
Jarrod Washburn (SEA)
Washburn, who currently has a 2.79 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP, may appear to the untrained eye to be having a career year. His ERA and WHIP are currently better than they have been at any point in his 12 year career. However, his .251 BABIP to this point is 30 points lower than his career average. When coupled with a 21.1 LD%, his current BABIP is not realistically sustainable. When his 79% LOB% (percentage of baserunners stranded) is also taken into consideration, a second-half drop off should be expected from Wahburn.
Scott Feldman (TEX)
Feldman currently holds the lead for the lowest BABIP in the Major Leagues among qualified pitchers at .237, and his general statistics show the effects. Feldman is pitching to a 3.59 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP so far in his fifth Major League season. Even with an average LD% (19.7%), Feldman's BABIP is way too low. Given his batted ball stats, and that his FIP (Fielding Independent ERA) is a full run higher than his ERA, it's safe to say that his ERA won't stay below 4.00 for too much longer.
Dan Haren (ARI)
Yes, he is considered one of the best pitchers in baseball, and rightfully so, but Haren's unusual good fortune must be taken into consideration. So far this season, Haren's BABIP sits 50 points lower than his career mark at .251. This number is not justified by his LD%, which is at 20.7% - above his career average. His impecable control gives him the ability to keep runners off the base paths, but at some point, his ground balls are going to have to find some holes more often. His historically bad second-half splits support my inclination to say that his stats will regress in August and September.
Pitchers: The Misfortunate
Jon Lester (BOS)
His stats actually look pretty decent, but they could be so much better. Despite getting batters to hit only 17% line drives, he has a robust .342 BABIP in 2009 to this date. As a ground ball pitcher who can also throw the ball by most hitters, don't be surprised if he has much more success in the future.
Max Scherzer (ARI)
Here's a story similar to Lester's: .328 BABIP, 18% line drives. He's not as strong of a pitcher as Lester, but I can still see him doing better in the near future.
Brett Anderson (OAK)
Anderson's stuff might still be developing, but there's no denying this guy is getting cheated. He's leading the Majors with a 14% LD% - in fact, he has rolled 49.5% ground balls, nearly as much as his line drives and fly balls combined - yet his BABIP is .306. That's not particularly high, but it certainly should be lower in Anderson's case. No matter what, this young pitcher has quite a bright future ahead of him.
Batters: The Fortunate
David Wright (NYM)
Wait a minute, this guy has a 24.9% LDP! Why is he considered lucky? Well, because no player has ever maintained a .416 BABIP over an entire qualified season dating back to 2002, when batted ball data was made publicly available. In fact, the only two players to have ever sustained a BABIP of .400 or more for a complete season were Jose Hernandez in 2002 (.406 BABIP; 25.5 LD%), and Ichiro Suzuki in 2004 (I'll get to him later...) Wright's .416 is unheard of and bound to come down to Earth, especially considering that his BABIP tops out at .362 among his first five Major League seasons. With a 24.9% LD%, .362 is about what his BABIP should be, so again, his BABIP will almost definitely decrease. And when that happens, his batting average will surely settle comfortably below .300. His batting on balls not put in play is far diminished from last year (increase in strikeouts, decrease in homeruns), so his normal AVG will not be able to survive the inevitable drop in BABIP, which has already begun.
Mark Reynolds (ARI)
A .368 BABIP and a 15.9 LD% simply don't go together. To make it worse for Reynolds, he has struck out 1/3 of the times he has walked up to the plate. There is hope, though, considering that the low LD% is atypical for Reynolds so far in his young career. if 2007 and 2008 were accurate showings, this number could possibly increase, holding off a significant drop in BABIP. So he can probably avoid hitting .239 again, but he almost certainly won't finish off the 2009 season hitting higher than he is now (.277).
Ichiro Suzuki (SEA)
Ichiro is an interesting case. He characteristically hits for a high BABIP without hitting many line drives. This year, the LD% is lower than it has ever been for him, at 17.7%, but his BABIP is not only high, but 25 points above his career average, at .383. Yes, his current .358 AVG should decrease, but there is a secret to Ichiro's success that not many other hitters can replicate: the infield hit. Currently, Ichiro leads the Majors in infield hits with 32 by a large margin (next is Michael Bourn with 21). His 15.8 IFH% also leads the majors. And Ichiro plays to his strengths better than any other, as he has a GB% of 50% or higher in all of his 8 Major League seasons. Could he be having some unusual luck with the occasional ground ball finding a hole? Yes, probably, but don't underestimate the impact his speed has on his batting average.
Batters: The Misfortunate
Jimmy Rollins (PHI)
Rollins is having a disappointing season thus far, but it's hard to say it's all his fault. Despite a dramatic drop from his 24% LD% in 2008, his 2009 LD% is still a somewhat respectable 19.3%. That is by no means great, but it merits more than a .249 BABIP for sure. Rollins doesn't strike out much, so he's been able to keep his batting average only 12 points lower than his BABIP, at.237. Still, his AVG could and should be higher.
Hideki Matsui (NYY)
Matsui's LD% has been climbing in recent years, and is now up to 19.2%, but for some reason his BABIP has taken a sudden 50 point dip from his career .308 clip all the way down to .254. Strange, isn't it? Consequently, his batting average is down to .252. The only other change in Matsui's hitting is that he is seemingly getting under the ball a bit more than usual. His GB% is down 7%, and his FB% is up 7% from last season. In addition, his IFFB (pop-up) percentage is up to 13.5% - almost double his career mark of 7.2%. A change in his swing may be contributing to his diminished success with balls in play, but even still, his BABIP could easily be higher than .254.
Jerry Hairston (CIN)
In 2008, Hairston was very fortunate on balls in play in the 80 games he has played. Through 82 games this season, he has not seen nearly as much luck, even with his LD% staying remarkably high at 24.5%. His BABIP has dropped 82 points from last season's - all the way down to .279, and not surprisingly, his batting average took just as much of a hit. Strangely, for a line drive hitter, he gets under the ball quite a bit, but doesn't hit for much power, in a small park no less. He has never completed a season with a single-digit IFFB% which makes his case all the more interesting. I think he certainly has the potential to hit close to .300, if not higher, for an entire season if he gets the breaks. The question is if he can minimize the pop-ups and focus on hitting line drives.
Alright, that's about it for this week's post. I hope you enjoyed reading. I'll announce the subject next weekend's post shortly.
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