Testing the Corrrelation Between Certain Pitching Statistics and A Team's Wins

Sorry about the gigantic gap between posts. I have been on vacation for the past two weeks and just returned on Friday. I meant to post a few more times before I left, but a few different things came up and I was held back. I will try to pick up where I left off.

This mini-investigation's goal is to deduce the importance of certain pitching statistics when it comes to a team's success (whether they win or lose). I looked at 14 different pitching statistics for this experiment, some more well-known than others. These stats were updated through August 8th. I tried to stay away from stats such as runs, for they would be a little too obvious. I attempted to select statistics that signify all different things in pitching. Some of them, like FIP for instance, I will explain as we go along. Most of them, however, will be familiar or self-explanatory.

Of the 14 statistics I looked at, WHIP had the highest r squared value (0.44). This value is not particularly high, but for the purposes of this experiment, it is sufficient. The next highest was ERA at 0.36. These two graphs are shown below.

































As you can see, teams that have allowed less walks, hits, and earned runs have been more successful in winning games. Only one team with 60 wins or more had a WHIP over 1.40. These relationships are not surprising, as these two statistics have emerged as two of the most prominent indicators of success in pitching. The next highest correlation was that of LOB% (the percentage of runners left on base). This makes sense, since as a pitcher, the less runners you allow to score, the better chance you have of winning. The graph is shown below.

















Of the other 11 statistics, only opponent batting average had an r squared value over 0.3. Here is a list of all 14 tested statistics and their respective r squared values:















Perhaps the most intriguing statistic here is FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching. This statistic was created earlier this decade in multiple different forms. Its purpose is to evaluate a pitcher based only upon plays that he had a direct involvement in completing, or that his fielders did not participate in. It is scaled in a way to resemble ERA, so that one can determine if a pitcher is being helped or hurt by his fielding. Like ERA, a lower FIP is better. This statistic is widely referred to in the sabermentric world, though is has many limitations. The most important of these shortcomings is that it does not consider the different types of batted balls at all, so a pitcher who allows only 15% line drives, but only strikes out 2 batters for every one he walks will be disadvantaged in FIP even though he pitches to bad contact (a good thing for a pitcher). The limitations of FIP are certainly shown here, as ERA's r squared value is nearly double that of FIP.

Thanks for reading. I think I'm going to post again Wednesday or Thursday, instead of on Sunday, because I'll be visiting my family this weekend. Keep checking back for updates, though.

What did they do to deserve this?

Apparently God isn't a New York Mets fan. I can't think of a better explanation for all of the trouble the team has had this year with injuries. The Mets currently have 9 players on the DL, and that doesn't include any of the players involved in the three most recent incidents. Three players have been sidelined in the past two days, each injury as strange and unexpected as the next. Even if I weren't a Mets fan I would feel bad for them. No team deserves this, even though injuries are a part of the game, and are bound to happen to everyone at some point.

This weekend I've decided on looking at the correlation between different pitching stats and wins, essentially in order to determine what is the "winning formula", as far as pitching is concerned.

The Most Productive Deals of the '09 Deadline

Although Roy Halladay didn't go anywhere, there were many players switching uniforms this past week, and seemingly half of them were leaving the Pirates. Then again, Pittsburgh was able to get a whole lot of youth back for the aging contracts they gave up...I'll get to them, though. There were several deals that were completed that appear to me to particularly favor one side or the other. Below is my own ranking of the top five most productive trades that transpired over the past few days.

1. Phillies: Cliff Lee for Jason Knapp, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, and Lou Marson

Lee might not be quite as good as Roy Halladay, but he certainly will get the job done, and at a much lower price. To get the lefty, the Phillies did not have to deal any of their four top prospects that were on the table for Halladay. While the very young Knapp and Carrasco could both end up developing into solid starting pitchers, the Phillies were able to hold on to pitchers Kyle Drabek and J.A. Happ, and outfielders Dominic Brown and Michael Taylor. This certainly looks like a deal that could really help the Phillies, as it fills a need and strengthens their team heading into the final months of the season. To top it off, Philadelphia also receives Ben Francisco, a useful 27-year-old outfielder with decent power and speed. I wouldn't say this trade automatically sends them to the playoffs yet - with two months left in the season, anything can happen - but it sure does make one of the best teams even better.

2. Red Sox: Victor Martinez for Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone, and Bryan Price

The Red Sox already have one of the best lineups in baseball, but they found a way to make it better on Friday, adding Victor Martinez for young pitchers Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone, and Bryan Price. Like the Phillies, although Boston gave up three quality, young arms, they managed to get a bat that will significantly help their team for multiple years without dealing their most well-thought-of young pitchers Buccholz, Bowden, and Bard. This isn't a terrible trade for Cleveland, as they do get young pitching that can help their major league team right away in Masterson. However, this move should prove most beneficial for the Red Sox, as they acquire a player who can play catcher and first base, which gives them a great deal of versatility with Varitek, Youkilis, Lowell, and Ortiz.

3. Pirates: Their entire firesale

You might not recognize any of the players the pirates traded for this week, but chances are you will in a few years. No, they didn't land any true "top prospects", but to be honest, they didn't really lose any big players either. P Tim Alderson, P Kevin Hart, C Jeff Clement, and OF Lastings Milledge are atop the list of incoming prospects that could fill two-thirds of a 25-man roster. Getting starting pitching prospect Tim Alderson from the Giants for Freddy Sanchez was most likely the highlight of the firesale. Alderson is a 20-year-old strikethrower currently in AA, who was considered to be among San Francisco's top pitching prospects, along with Madison Bumgarner and Scott Barnes. Freddy Sanchez just isn't the kind of player that should cost a prospect like Alderson. The Pirates certainly got a good deal there. Not to mention all of the salary the Pirates got rid of this week, which should be reinvested in player development, drafting, scouting, etc. Overall, this was a positive week for the Pittsburgh Pirates, who were going nowhere this year and had no choice but to think about the future.

4. Padres: Clayton Richard, Aaron Poreda, Adam Russell, and Dexter Carter for Jake Peavy

Jake Peavy would really be a great acquisition for the White Sox, if he were healthy. The optimistic view right now is for a late August return for Peavy, who has been since early June with a strained tendon in his right ankle. However, he is still too far away from returning to accurately project a timeframe. On the other side of this deal, San Diego received four young pitchers, headed by 25-year-old lefty Clayton Richard, who has already shown signs of promise at the Major Leaguelevel, despite encountering some trouble recently in 2009. Aaron Poreda is another southpaw who is 22, and has pitched 11 innings in relief for the White Sox this season. He needs to work on his control a bit, but he has a great amount of potential. So do righties Adam Russell and Dexter Carter. The fact that the Padres were able to get essentially the same package for Peavy now, after he's been hurt for two months, as they did earlier in the season when he was healthy says a lot about how much the White Sox wanted Peavy. I still think that this trade could end up looking better for the Padres in the future.

5. Mariners: Luke French and Mauricio Robles for Jarrod Washburn

Last week I looked at Jarrod Washburn's season in my post about luck, and I came to the conclusion that he is really pitching to an ERA of about 4. That's not to say that he won't continue getting way too lucky, but let's just say that his ERA is bound to go up. Honestly, Luke French could probably pitch just as effectively as Jarrod Washburn with the same amount of defensive support - and he's 10 years younger. Plus, the Mariners landed 20-year-old southpaw Mauricio Robles, who isn't a bad prospect himself, with a 10.9 K/9 this year in A and high A. I'd say the Mariners got a pretty good return for a pitcher about to turn 34, who is going through a fluke of a season.


O.K. that's it for this post. I hope you enjoyed it. I'll write sometime early this week to announce the topic for next weekend.