Apologies

I deeply regret to announce that this blog will be shutting down for an indefinite period of time. Certain things have come up in my life over the past month or so that have made it impossible to satisfactorily maintain this page. I'm very sorry to anyone who may have been looking forward to reading my blog this season after reading the small sample of work I posted last year. I was certainly looking forward to writing about my favorite pastime. If all goes well, maybe I will get this blog back up and running over the summer. For now, I'll leave you with my top 15 offensive players for 2010 based on my wOBA projections. Across from left to right: Name / Team / Position / Age / Career wOBA / 2009 wOBA / Projected 2010 wOBA.

2010 First Basemen

Here we go with my top 12 offensive first basemen for 2010. As you might notice, first base looks like it will clearly be the deepest position this year. As always, comments are appreciated.

2010 Catchers

YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Baseball season again! ...well I guess not quite yet. I know it's very early, but I'm going to be starting to return to my regular weekly schedule soon. I will also begin to release some of my pre-season rankings for fantasy baseball, starting today. These rankings are based on my wOBA projections, which I worked on throughout the winter. I will go by position, starting with the incredibly shallow catching position.

There are a few things to note about the small chart below. First of all, I am showing my top seven catchers in order from highest to lowest projected wOBA for 2010. This is a projection, not a garauntee. There are things that even a statistician cannot forsee or predict. From left to right, the columns are: name, age, team, positions the player is eligible for, 2009 wOBA, my 2010 wOBA projection, and Bill James' 2010 wOBA projection.


Hopefully I will post again this weekend with the top first basemen for 2010. I promise I'll have all the positions up in about a month. If you have any questions or comments, please leave a post or email me. Either way, I'll try to respond in a day or two. I provided a very brief synopsis of my projection system in my January post, which should appear a little farther down on this page.

Thanks for reading.

Designing a Projection System: Introduction

Happy new year to everyone! It's hard to believe that it went by so quickly. What's even harder to believe is that pitchers and catchers will be reporting to spring training in less than 7 weeks. Before we know it, opening day will be here.

My big project for this off season is designing a model for projecting wOBA for hitters and opponent wOBA for pitchers. The model is essentially set, but the actual projections are still in progress. In the coming weeks I will post more about the projections as the project develops in the coming weeks, and hopefully I'll release my final wOBA projections by late March. But right now I'd like to focus on what I have come up with so far for the model.

When constructing this model, I considered the following factors both necessary and practical for use in a projection system:

1. Recent past performance (previous season's wOBA)
2. Average past performance (career wOBA)
3. "Luck" in recent past (previous season's BABIP compared with xBABIP)
4. Age

Of course, there are many other factors that one could take into account, but in the interest of practicality, I decided to try and keep this a simple as possible without comprimising reasonable accuracy. Ideally, I would regress wOBA over each individual player's entire career, personalizing each player's projection much more. However, using 2009 wOBA as a starting point, regressing towards career wOBA, and then adjusting for luck and age gets me well within the "reasonably accurate" range.

I'm very sorry, but I'm not going to release my exact formula...at least not yet. I will provide a bit of a teaser here, though. Below are three players' 2009 wOBA, Will Buckley projection, and Bill James projection.


I'll be posting again soon, hopefully, with some results. Thanks for reading!

New York Yankees: 2009 World Champions

Congratulations to the New York Yankees, who won the World Series this week over the Phillies in 6 games. It hasn't happened too often in recent years, but in 2009, the best team won. The Yankees led the majors with 56.9 total wins above replacement (WAR) this season. The team that leads the majors in WAR has only won the World Series in the same year two other times since the creation of the statistic at the beginning of this decade. Ironically, both of those times, the team to do it was the Boston Red Sox.

Well, anyway, congratulations to the New York Yankees. Even though as a Mets fan I despise them, I've learned through watching this series that I despise the Phillies more, at least at the moment.

Entering the off season, I must announce that I won't be posting every week again until the start of spring training 2010. However, I will write occasionally. My big project of the winter will be creating a model for a projection system. I will update you on this as it progresses, which will hopefully be soon.

As always, thanks for reading!

World Series 2009

Well, we finally have our 2009 World Series matchup set, and it's time to once again attempt to see into the future. But first, how were the League Champions decided? Let's see...

ALCS

Prediction: Yankees over Angels, 4-1
Result: Yankees over Angels, 4-2

I wasn't too surprised to see the Angels put up a reasonable fight; they're a very good team. Still, this one wasn't too hard to pick. From the beginning it seemed like the Yankees were in complete control. They have the strongest team overall, and it'll be tough for any team to beat them at this point.


NLCS

Prediction: Dodgers over Phillies, 4-3
Result: Phillies over Dodgers, 4-1

I really thought this series was going to be much closer. The Phillies proved me wrong once again, as they overpowered the Dodgers in 5 games. Their offense is great, but their starting pitching has been the key to their success so far. Their bullpen is their weakness, but it did not hurt them in this series. The Dodgers just weren't able to stop the Phils.


World Series: Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Yankees

This looks like it could be a very interesting series, even to a Mets' fan (though I can't say I'm rooting for either team.) Both teams have shown their dominance throughout the first two rounds of the playoffs, though the two teams are very different. I think that in the end, the Yankees' offense will not be as easily stopped as the Philles' offense, and that this will give New York the slight edge. Keep in mind that if the Yankees go with a three-man rotation, two-thirds of that rotation is left handed. Though small, this factor certainly may have an impact on the production of the Phillies' heavily left-handed lineup. And although the Phillies' pitching has been very good so far, the Yankees are certainly a greater challenge than the Dodgers or the Rockies. I expect this series to be decided in six games in favor of the Yankees.


Thanks again for reading

LCS Previews and Predictions

I'll be somewhat surprised if anyone reads this at all. Maybe I had a few readers before the playoffs, but after I went one for four in my divisional series predictions, I suppose only the truly dedicated will continue reading. That's quite alright with me. I don't at all expect to be right 100% of the time. However, I have faith in the validity of my methods. I can only hope that people will agree with me, but I realize that some won't.

Before I get into the AL & NL Championship Series, I will take accountability for my previous predictions.

ALDS

Prediction: Yankees over Twins, 3-1
Result: Yankees over Twins, 3-0

This was my only successful prediction of the first round of the playoffs. This seemed to be perceived as the easiest series to predict. However, the Twins led in all three games and failed to come through each time. Minnesota's bullpen was simply unable to overcome the superior offense of the Yankees. It looks like New York will be a force to be reckoned with in these playoffs.

Prediction: Red Sox over Angels 3-1
Result: Angels over Red Sox 3-0

The Red Sox also had some late-game pitching troubles, but their offense is as much to blame for this loss as anyone. Their powerful lineup was seemingly dormant during the majority of this series, and the Angels took advantage. John Lackey and Jered Weaver both pitched gems in L.A, and the Angels' offense covered up for Kazmir in game 3 with some timely hitting. The result of this series is not a fair indicator of these two teams' relative skill. However, the Angels played better than the Red Sox three times in a row, and so they move on to face the Yankees.

ALCS: New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Angels

This series is an interesting one. The rain expected in New York could create pitching dilemmas for both teams. Right now, the Yankees are hoping to be able to go with a three-man rotation, but that could change with the weather. The difference in this series, though, should be the offense. If the Yankees' hitters don't fall asleep as the Red Sox did, then the Yankees should have a really good chance of overpowering the Angels. I'm going to predict that the Yankees will win this series in 5 games, though it's very possible that the series could end up much closer than that.

NLDS

Prediction: Cardinals over Dodgers, 3-2
Result: Dodgers over Cardinals, 3-0

Well, one thing you have to admit is that, with the exception of Adam Wainwright, the great Cardinal starting pitching didn't show up at all in this series, and when it did, the bullpen tripped up. At the same time, the Dodgers' starting pitchers were very sharp in this series, especially Vincente Padilla. If you honestly expected Vincente Padilla's WPA to be .317 higher than that of all three of the St. Louis starting pitchers combined in this series, then I commend you.

Prediction: Rockies over Phillies, 3-2
Result: Phillies over Rockies, 3-1

As I said, this series could have gone either way. The Rockies played alright, but the Phillies played really well, and that was honestly the difference. The trade for Cliff Lee certainly looks like a brilliant move right now.

NLCS: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies

These two teams are very evenly matched. They are certainly two very different teams, but I think that this series will be a close one. According to my calculations, though, the Dodgers have the slight advantage. In this matchup, it appears as if Los Angeles' pitching will put them over the top. Philadelphia has a stronger offensive team, but the Dodgers' pitching may be able to do what the Rockies' pitchers could not. It must also be noted that Cliff Lee is currently scheduled to start games 3 and 7 because of his two starts in the NLDS. If this series comes down to a seventh game, Lee is certainly the man the Phillies will want on the mound. I will predict, though, that he won't be able to come through. My prediction is that the Dodgers will win this one in 7.


Thanks for reading =]