Sabermetrics Weekly

Apologies

2010-03-22T20:39:00.005-04:00

I deeply regret to announce that this blog will be shutting down for an indefinite period of time. Certain things have come up in my life over the past month or so that have made it impossible to satisfactorily maintain this page. I'm very sorry to anyone who may have been looking forward to reading my blog this season after reading the small sample of work I posted last year. I was certainly looking forward to writing about my favorite pastime. If all goes well, maybe I will get this blog back up and running over the summer. For now, I'll leave you with my top 15 offensive players for 2010 based on my wOBA projections. Across from left to right: Name / Team / Position / Age / Career wOBA / 2009 wOBA / Projected 2010 wOBA.

2010 First Basemen

2010-02-14T18:08:00.002-05:00

Here we go with my top 12 offensive first basemen for 2010. As you might notice, first base looks like it will clearly be the deepest position this year. As always, comments are appreciated.

2010 Catchers

2010-02-12T17:14:00.006-05:00

YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Baseball season again! ...well I guess not quite yet. I know it's very early, but I'm going to be starting to return to my regular weekly schedule soon. I will also begin to release some of my pre-season rankings for fantasy baseball, starting today. These rankings are based on my wOBA projections, which I worked on throughout the winter. I will go by position, starting with the incredibly shallow catching position.

There are a few things to note about the small chart below. First of all, I am showing my top seven catchers in order from highest to lowest projected wOBA for 2010. This is a projection, not a garauntee. There are things that even a statistician cannot forsee or predict. From left to right, the columns are: name, age, team, positions the player is eligible for, 2009 wOBA, my 2010 wOBA projection, and Bill James' 2010 wOBA projection.

Hopefully I will post again this weekend with the top first basemen for 2010. I promise I'll have all the positions up in about a month. If you have any questions or comments, please leave a post or email me. Either way, I'll try to respond in a day or two. I provided a very brief synopsis of my projection system in my January post, which should appear a little farther down on this page.

Thanks for reading.

Designing a Projection System: Introduction

2010-01-01T21:02:00.005-05:00

Happy new year to everyone! It's hard to believe that it went by so quickly. What's even harder to believe is that pitchers and catchers will be reporting to spring training in less than 7 weeks. Before we know it, opening day will be here.

My big project for this off season is designing a model for projecting wOBA for hitters and opponent wOBA for pitchers. The model is essentially set, but the actual projections are still in progress. In the coming weeks I will post more about the projections as the project develops in the coming weeks, and hopefully I'll release my final wOBA projections by late March. But right now I'd like to focus on what I have come up with so far for the model.

When constructing this model, I considered the following factors both necessary and practical for use in a projection system:

1. Recent past performance (previous season's wOBA)
2. Average past performance (career wOBA)
3. "Luck" in recent past (previous season's BABIP compared with xBABIP)
4. Age

Of course, there are many other factors that one could take into account, but in the interest of practicality, I decided to try and keep this a simple as possible without comprimising reasonable accuracy. Ideally, I would regress wOBA over each individual player's entire career, personalizing each player's projection much more. However, using 2009 wOBA as a starting point, regressing towards career wOBA, and then adjusting for luck and age gets me well within the "reasonably accurate" range.

I'm very sorry, but I'm not going to release my exact formula...at least not yet. I will provide a bit of a teaser here, though. Below are three players' 2009 wOBA, Will Buckley projection, and Bill James projection.

I'll be posting again soon, hopefully, with some results. Thanks for reading!

New York Yankees: 2009 World Champions

2009-11-06T17:55:00.003-05:00

Congratulations to the New York Yankees, who won the World Series this week over the Phillies in 6 games. It hasn't happened too often in recent years, but in 2009, the best team won. The Yankees led the majors with 56.9 total wins above replacement (WAR) this season. The team that leads the majors in WAR has only won the World Series in the same year two other times since the creation of the statistic at the beginning of this decade. Ironically, both of those times, the team to do it was the Boston Red Sox.

Well, anyway, congratulations to the New York Yankees. Even though as a Mets fan I despise them, I've learned through watching this series that I despise the Phillies more, at least at the moment.

Entering the off season, I must announce that I won't be posting every week again until the start of spring training 2010. However, I will write occasionally. My big project of the winter will be creating a model for a projection system. I will update you on this as it progresses, which will hopefully be soon.

As always, thanks for reading!

World Series 2009

2009-10-31T10:33:00.003-04:00

Well, we finally have our 2009 World Series matchup set, and it's time to once again attempt to see into the future. But first, how were the League Champions decided? Let's see...

ALCS

Prediction: Yankees over Angels, 4-1
Result: Yankees over Angels, 4-2

I wasn't too surprised to see the Angels put up a reasonable fight; they're a very good team. Still, this one wasn't too hard to pick. From the beginning it seemed like the Yankees were in complete control. They have the strongest team overall, and it'll be tough for any team to beat them at this point.

NLCS

Prediction: Dodgers over Phillies, 4-3
Result: Phillies over Dodgers, 4-1

I really thought this series was going to be much closer. The Phillies proved me wrong once again, as they overpowered the Dodgers in 5 games. Their offense is great, but their starting pitching has been the key to their success so far. Their bullpen is their weakness, but it did not hurt them in this series. The Dodgers just weren't able to stop the Phils.

World Series: Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Yankees

This looks like it could be a very interesting series, even to a Mets' fan (though I can't say I'm rooting for either team.) Both teams have shown their dominance throughout the first two rounds of the playoffs, though the two teams are very different. I think that in the end, the Yankees' offense will not be as easily stopped as the Philles' offense, and that this will give New York the slight edge. Keep in mind that if the Yankees go with a three-man rotation, two-thirds of that rotation is left handed. Though small, this factor certainly may have an impact on the production of the Phillies' heavily left-handed lineup. And although the Phillies' pitching has been very good so far, the Yankees are certainly a greater challenge than the Dodgers or the Rockies. I expect this series to be decided in six games in favor of the Yankees.

Thanks again for reading

LCS Previews and Predictions

2009-10-15T15:54:00.001-04:00

I'll be somewhat surprised if anyone reads this at all. Maybe I had a few readers before the playoffs, but after I went one for four in my divisional series predictions, I suppose only the truly dedicated will continue reading. That's quite alright with me. I don't at all expect to be right 100% of the time. However, I have faith in the validity of my methods. I can only hope that people will agree with me, but I realize that some won't.

Before I get into the AL & NL Championship Series, I will take accountability for my previous predictions.

ALDS

Prediction: Yankees over Twins, 3-1
Result: Yankees over Twins, 3-0

This was my only successful prediction of the first round of the playoffs. This seemed to be perceived as the easiest series to predict. However, the Twins led in all three games and failed to come through each time. Minnesota's bullpen was simply unable to overcome the superior offense of the Yankees. It looks like New York will be a force to be reckoned with in these playoffs.

Prediction: Red Sox over Angels 3-1
Result: Angels over Red Sox 3-0

The Red Sox also had some late-game pitching troubles, but their offense is as much to blame for this loss as anyone. Their powerful lineup was seemingly dormant during the majority of this series, and the Angels took advantage. John Lackey and Jered Weaver both pitched gems in L.A, and the Angels' offense covered up for Kazmir in game 3 with some timely hitting. The result of this series is not a fair indicator of these two teams' relative skill. However, the Angels played better than the Red Sox three times in a row, and so they move on to face the Yankees.

ALCS: New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Angels

This series is an interesting one. The rain expected in New York could create pitching dilemmas for both teams. Right now, the Yankees are hoping to be able to go with a three-man rotation, but that could change with the weather. The difference in this series, though, should be the offense. If the Yankees' hitters don't fall asleep as the Red Sox did, then the Yankees should have a really good chance of overpowering the Angels. I'm going to predict that the Yankees will win this series in 5 games, though it's very possible that the series could end up much closer than that.

NLDS

Prediction: Cardinals over Dodgers, 3-2
Result: Dodgers over Cardinals, 3-0

Well, one thing you have to admit is that, with the exception of Adam Wainwright, the great Cardinal starting pitching didn't show up at all in this series, and when it did, the bullpen tripped up. At the same time, the Dodgers' starting pitchers were very sharp in this series, especially Vincente Padilla. If you honestly expected Vincente Padilla's WPA to be .317 higher than that of all three of the St. Louis starting pitchers combined in this series, then I commend you.

Prediction: Rockies over Phillies, 3-2
Result: Phillies over Rockies, 3-1

As I said, this series could have gone either way. The Rockies played alright, but the Phillies played really well, and that was honestly the difference. The trade for Cliff Lee certainly looks like a brilliant move right now.

NLCS: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies

These two teams are very evenly matched. They are certainly two very different teams, but I think that this series will be a close one. According to my calculations, though, the Dodgers have the slight advantage. In this matchup, it appears as if Los Angeles' pitching will put them over the top. Philadelphia has a stronger offensive team, but the Dodgers' pitching may be able to do what the Rockies' pitchers could not. It must also be noted that Cliff Lee is currently scheduled to start games 3 and 7 because of his two starts in the NLDS. If this series comes down to a seventh game, Lee is certainly the man the Phillies will want on the mound. I will predict, though, that he won't be able to come through. My prediction is that the Dodgers will win this one in 7.

Thanks for reading =]

2009 Playoff Guesses

2009-10-07T09:49:00.004-04:00

First of all, I'd like to acknowledge the amazingness of last night's game. There have now been exciting one-game playoffs for three years in a row. Needless to say, I feel spoiled as a baseball fan. That game was a great one to watch, and hopefully the same will be said of games to come this October.

Now for the point of this post. Some might say that it is truly ridiculous to predict the winners of sporting events like I am about to, since there is no way of knowing exactly what will happen in the future. It is absolutely true that what I am about to predict is nothing more than an educated guess, and that each and every one of my predictions could easily prove to be false. That said, it is still entertaining at the very least to utilize what statistics we have in order to come up with an estimation of relative skill in baseball. If nothing else, this might at least determine how much predictive value these statistics may have. Who knows? Maybe one or two of my predictions will be true and I'll appear as if I'm actually intelligent :)

ALDS

New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins

If there is a lopsided matchup in the first round of the playoffs, most people would agree that this is it. The 103-59 Yankees are taking on the 87-76 Twins, who just squeaked into the playoffs last night. The statistics seem to agree with this notion. New York's pitching is not ridiculously superior to the Twins' pitching (though the Yankees do have the clear upper hand there), and the Twins' defense nearly matches that of the Yankees. The real difference in this matchup is the offense. The Yankees' lineup is significantly better, top to bottom, than the Twins', excluding Joe Mauer. The Twins just won't be able to get past the Yankees without Justin Morneau's bat in the lineup. My educated guess is that the Yankees will win this series in 4 games.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Boston Redsox

This should be an interesting series. Both teams are certainly capable of winning it, though there appears to be a clear mathematical favorite. The Boston Redsox, who were my preseason World Series favorites, are projected to beat the Angels fairly easily. In fact, there is hardly an area in which the Angels are better than the Redsox on paper, though the Redsox don't seem to be far superior by any measure. According to my calculations, the Redsox have about the same probability of winning their ALDS series as the Yankees have of winning theirs. Take caution, though: as I said before, anything can happen. Still, I am predicting that Boston will take this series 3 games to 1.

NLDS

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Both the Dodgers and the Cardinals are strong playoff teams. The two clubs are very close in a lot of ways. This matchup is closer than either of the AL matchups, and could come down to a fifth game. Both teams certainly have the ability to take the series. It just seems like St. Louis' starting pitching will put them over the top in this series. If they struggle in that department, though, the matchup could be very close. However, I will still pick the Cardinals in five.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies

This is by far the closest matchup of the four. By my calculations, the Rockies have a 51.1% chance of winning the series, which shows how ridiculously even the two teams appear to be. I think that if the Phillies' pitching staff can perform at their maximum capability, the Phillies will be able to take the series. However, for most of the year the Philadelphia bullpen has struggled, and 2008 ace Cole Hamels has been somewhat mediocre. Despite the addition of Cliff Lee and Pedro Martinez, and the emergence of J.A. Happ, I will go with the Rockies to pull off the 3-2 series victory.

I'll post again next week with LCS preditions and partial recaps of the LDS. By the way, if you would like to know how these predictions are being calculated, send me a message and I'll send the excel file when I get a chance. As always, comments are appreciated.

Tigers/Twins One Game Playoff

2009-10-04T19:50:00.002-04:00

It's all tied up in the AL Central, and that means there'll be a one game playoff to determine the division winner. This also means I'm going to have to hold off on the playoff predictions until at least Tuesday. Hopefully Ill be able to get it up by Tuesday night, but if not, then expect it Wednesday for sure.

How Can We Measure Offensive Consistency?

2009-09-28T10:31:00.011-04:00

With this decade in baseball winding down, a question that presents itself is: who were the most consistent and inconsistent hitters of the last decade? To answer this question, I decided to compare the standard deviations and inter-quartile ranges of several players' wOBAs from the past 10 seasons. If the process wasn't so tedious, believe me, I would have done many more. That said, this took a very long time, so only 35 of the most prominent hitters of the past decade were included. To qualify, a hitter must have had over 5000 PA since 2000. Also, for a season to be included in the analysis, the hitter must have had over 220 PA in that season. An overview of the results is shown in the chart below.

We go by IQR in this case because nearly all of the distributions are at least somewhat skewed, so IQR will be less affected by extreme outliers than standard deviation (Sx). A prime example of this is with our "most consistent hitter", Jeff Kent. According to IQR, he is by far the most consistent. Yet his Sx pegs him as merely average in terms of consistency. This discrepancy is mainly due to two seasons that fell far outside of his normal wOBA range. In 2000, his wOBA was .428, which led all Major League second basemen. This was by far his best offensive year, as his wOBA was 30 points higher than it was in any other season. For the next 7 years, however, Kent posted a wOBA between .367 and .398. He finally began to decline rapidly in 2008, when his wOBA dropped all the way down to .326 - nearly 50 points lower than his 2007 wOBA. Despite these two outlier seasons, we still can say that Kent was the most consistent hitter of the past decade.

He is followed by Mike Cameron and Torii Hunter, two outfielders who were consistently slightly above average for the past 10 years. Yet, the bottom line is that they were more consistent than stars such as Carlos Lee, Manny Ramirez, and Ichiro Suzuki (who weren't too inconsistent themselves.)

Now for the inconsistent hitters. Of the 35 in this group, Todd Helton leads the way. Don't misinterpret this as evidence against Helton's greatness as a hitter. The thing is, when you have seasons like he did in 2000, it's hard to appear consistent by any measure (this is part of the reason why Albert Pujols is ranked 25th in this group.) Such insane seasons as that are near impossible to replicate. In fact, the main difference between Helton and Pujols in this investigation is timing. Pujols has been in his prime for the majority of the past 10 years, while over the past few seasons, the decline of Todd Helton has begun.

Most of the inconsistent players in this sample are in fact in the midst of a decline. Jim Edmonds, Brian Giles, Jim Thome, Scott Rolen and others are prime examples of this.

The most consistent hitter with a median wOBA over .400 is Manny Ramirez. Whether this was done naturally, or with the help of performance enhancing drugs is a whole different conversation. Just as an interesting side note, though, the next most consistent player with a median wOBA of .400+ : Alex Rodriguez.

Hope you enjoyed this one. I'll be back next week with what will certainly be my most irrelevant post yet: playoff predictions. I guarantee, though, that there will be lots of statistics behind my educated guesses.

Just thought I'd share this...

2009-09-25T15:52:00.002-04:00

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/why-do-we-care

I recently found this article written by Dave Cameron regarding his views on MVP award. Honestly, I couldn't have possibly said any of it better myself. I think this is certainly a point that should be recognized among sabermetricians: what is the use of arguing about yearly MLB awards, such as the MVP award, when these awards are hardly relevant at all to the actual game of baseball and our passion for it? In no way am I advocating the termination of the MVP award, but I do think that Cameron's point is a very good one.

The Joy of Excel

2009-09-20T20:40:00.003-04:00

When I was in Middle School, I took a required course in Microsoft Excel. Of course, they didn't bother to teach us any of the really cool things about the application. All we really did was plug some numbers into a couple of columns and perform a few simple functions. The 12-year-old me would have never believed the amazing things one can do with this über-app.

Top 3 Things I've Recently Discovered About Excel

1. Its Amazing Formulaic Capabilities

Not only can you do basic things like summation, etc, but if you delve deeper into the functions menu, you'll find lots of different advanced operations. My favorite are the logical functions (if, then, etc.), which I've begun to use for constructing a projection formula.

2. Data Plotting and Analysis

Its graphing capabilities certainly very solid, and the ability to add a trendline and calculate the correlation is very useful in many ways. I've already utilized these functions in multiple posts in this blog.

3. Usefulness & Mac Compatibility

I use a Mac myself, and I have to say that the program works flawlessly and seamlessly on my computer.

OK sorry if this post was a downer after some of my recent essays, but I do have a legitimate excuse. My internet went down for an entire day late this week, and I was having trouble coming up with an idea in the first place, so i was set back quite a bit. But honestly, Excel needs some love here (absolutely no sarcasm.)

There will definitely be an extremely intense baseball post here next weekend, I promise :)

Runs and RBI: What Significance Do These Statistics Have?

2009-09-13T14:00:00.013-04:00

A year or two ago, I had an argument with a friend of mine about two statistics - runs scored and runs batted in. As we know, they are both statistics that are heavily dependent on circumstance, though they are widely used to measure the skill of individual players in baseball. My friend proposed that runs are more indicative of a player's offensive skill than RBI, while I argued that the two statistics are equally unreliable when evaluating a player's skill. At the time, though, neither of us had the proof to back up our statements. Today, I will attempt to prove my assertion.

How is this possible, you ask? As you may know, wOBA (weighted on base average) is an accurate measure of a player's offensive production. For those of you unfamiliar with the stat, a full description can be found here. By plotting the wOBA of all qualified Major League hitters against their respective R and RBI totals, we can calculate the correlations, and determine if there is any difference between R and RBI in terms of significance. We can also determine how significant the stats really are, to some extent, in the big picture.

I gathered the statistics of all qualified hitters from the past three seasons and constructed two graphs for each year: Runs vs. wOBA and RBI vs. wOBA. The two graphs appear very similar in most respects. Here is a look at the two relationships in the 2009 season (as of 9/12/09.)

Again, there is not a significant difference between these two graphs in terms of correlation. The R squared values for the two relations are nearly equivalent (Runs: 0.426; RBI: 0.378.) A difference of 0.048 in this case is not significant; the two values are virtually the same. Looking at the R squared values from the past 3 seasons (shown below), we see that nothing much has changed in recent years.

The R squared value for both relations settles very close to 0.4. Given that there is a difference of only 0.03 between the three year averages of the two statistics' R squared values, we can safely say that neither is more indicative of true offensive production any more than the other. This also means that the runs scored and runs batted in statistics accurately demonstrate a player's true offensive output only 40% of the time, which is not high at all. To give some perspective on this matter, the relationship between OBP and wOBA in 2009 is shown below. Note that the R squared value is 0.748 - much higher than that of runs or RBI.

My hypothesis was correct: neither statistic - runs scored or RBI - is more indicative of a player's individual offensive production and skill. Furthermore, the unreliability of these statistics in player evaluation has been clearly proven.

Once again, thanks for reading. Any feedback is much appreciated!

September Call-Ups: Part 2

2009-09-07T23:58:00.002-04:00

Happy Labor Day to everyone.

Listed below are a few players who were not named in my post last Thursday as players to watch, but deserve your attention nonetheless. These players may have been called up later in the week, or may have just slipped under my radar at the time. Anyway, there are some good young call-ups here. Hope you enjoy.

SP Wade Davis (TBR)

The 24-year-old righty was called up a few days ago and made his first Major League start against the Tigers on Sunday. Davis dazzled Detroit for 7 innings, giving up only 3 hits, 1 walk, and 1 run on an Aubrey Huff homerun. He struck out 9 and threw 105 pitches - 68 for strikes. Davis pitched to a 3.40 ERA in 28 games in AAA, and in 158.2 innings, his K/BB was 140/60. Davis could take over Andy Sonnastine's spot in the rotation for the rest of September, given how poorly Sonnastine has pitched. If Davis can limit his walks, he certainly has the potential to be a solid big league starting pitcher for the Rays of the future.

C Buster Posey (SFG)

The Giants' first round pick of 2008 was called up last week. He has not seen any playing time yet, but in all probability, he will end up behind the plate before too long. Posey began the season at A+, after spending limited time last year in the lower levels of the Giants' system. He played 80 games for San Jose, and held a .433 wOBA when he was promoted to AAA Fresno. There his wOBA was .390 in 35 games. He has shown very good offensive skills in only 542 minor league plate appearances, and also a very good eye at the plate. His BB/K over the past two years was 70/72. We will see if the 22-year-old catcher will be able to make the quick transition to the Major Leagues. Even if he struggles this month, though, he still has incredible potential, and figures to be the Giants' future catcher, as long as he can hold the position defensively.

OF Michael Brantley (CLE)

This speedster has already made his mark in 6 games with the Indians since being called up. He has hit .391 in 24 PA, and has already stolen one base in two tries. This isn't anything special for Brantley, however, as he has already stolen 46 bases in AAA this year. Brantley has not yet hit his first Major League extra base hit, and there may be some who question Brantley's readiness as a hitter for the Major Leagues. Yet, he is still only 22 years old, and has played in AAA the entire year. So even though he only managed a .344 wOBA in AAA, we expect his offensive skills to come along in time, since he has had more offensive success at lower levels (.375 in A; .356 in AA). We'll see what Brantley offers to the Indians in 2009 and beyond. He has looked promising so far.

Thanks for reading, and check back next weekend for a new post. The topic in currently undecided. i will announce it some time this week.

September Call-Ups: Players to Watch

2009-09-02T22:25:00.001-04:00

As we enter September and Major League rosters expand to 40 players, teams will begin calling up their minor league players in order to help the team down the stretch, and also to get a look at their young talent at the Major League level. As the first wave of promotions is announced, some players stand out as ones to watch. Following is a compilation of the most interesting call-ups thus far at each position.

Starting Pitchers

There have not been too many interesting starting pitchers promoted yet. Some teams elect to wait until the end of the minor league season to call up certain players, so there may still be some higher-level starting pitchers called up in the coming days. That said, there have been a few players that have caught my eye. 26-year-old righty Brandon McCarthy could solidify Texas' pitching and give them a real shot at the wild card, or even the AL west. McCarthy is returning from injury - a stress fracture in his shoulder - and allowed 1 run over 6.1 innings in his first Major League start since June. He is not a sure thing at the Major League level by any means, at least at the present time, and being a flyball pitcher in Texas sure won't help him. That said, he is still a young pitcher who has had moderate success at the major league level in the past, and he could certainly help the Rangers, who can always use solid pitching.

It hardly counts as a September call-up, but Tim Hudson's return from Tommy John Surgery should be something to watch. He recorded a win in his first start of the season on Tuesday after pitching 5.1 innings and yielding 2 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks. Hudson is a 34-year-old righty who has seen much success in his career. If he can regain some of what he had prior to his surgery, then the Braves will certainly have a shot at the playoffs.

Relief Pitchers

The majority of pitching call-ups so far have been relievers. A fair amount are at the very least, of interest. Those include Brad Kilby, Guillermo Moscoso, Warner Madrigal, Waldis Joaquin, Joel Peralta, and Jack Taschner. However, possibly the most interesting of the relief pitcher call-ups is Edwar Ramirez of the New York Yankees. Ramirez was an important part of the Yankees' bullpen in 2008, but struggled mightily with his control early this season. He was sent to AAA in mid-May after walking 15 batters in 17.1 innings. However, in 51 innings for AAA, Ramirez pitched to a 2.82 BB/9 - nearly 5 BB/9 lower than the 7.79 he posted for the big league club. His strikeout and homerun rates both improved drastically as well, and it seems as he may have regained his 2008 form somewhere along the way in AAA. We'll see how he does in the majors - there's no denying that AAA is not the same as the AL East - but it does look like Ramirez has found his command again, which at the very least could mean that the Yankees' bullpen will receive some welcome help going into September and October.

Catcher

As a Mets' fan, I can personally tell you how painful it can be to watch the Mets right now. But like any team, they have their bright spots - reasons to keep watching. One reason the average fan might choose to continue watching the Mets at this point in the season is the call-up of catching prospect Josh Thole. The 22-year-old backstop hit .300 last year in high A, and this year, his batting average has improved to .328 in AA. He does not hit for much power at all, but as a 22-year-old catcher in A+ and AA, his ability to maintain a .372 wOBA is impressive. Another thing that is impressive about Thole is that his BB/K has been consistently above 1 over the past three years. Consequentially, his OBP has risen steadily since his professional debut in 2006. We'll see how he handles Major League pitching. He is scheduled to debut on Thursday against the Rockies.

First Base

With Russell Branyan on the DL, the Mariners have promoted Mike Carp, a 23-year-old first baseman who hit 15 HR with a .274 average in 109 AAA games this season. Carp was once a well-thought-of prospect in the Mets' system before they traded him to Seattle, and he still has a lot of potential, even though he has not hit as well this year as he did in 2008. regardless, he should get a significant amount of playing time at first base for the Mariners in September.

Second Base

White Sox rookie Chris Getz has returned from the 15-day DL, and has been reinstated as Chicago's second baseman. Getz has had a solid rookie season in 2009, hitting .267 over 90 games, with 23 extra-base hits. Although he is by no means a strong offensive player at this point in his career, it still should be interesting to see if Getz can wrap up his rookie campaign on a positive note, and if he can make the necessary adjustments to raise his .314 wOBA.

Third Base

Yes, we're going with a double dip on the Chi Sox. 3B Josh Fields also received a call-up to the White Sox in lieu of the roster expansions. Don't get me wrong: I don't think Josh Fields is as great a hitter as he may have been seen as after his 2007 rookie year. That .302 BABIP was bound to go down with such a low LD% (16.5%). Unless he improves his line drive rate, he will have a hard time staying afloat in the Major Leagues. Yet this is his opportunity to prove himself worthy of a spot on the White Sox in the future, and considering that his contract expires at the end of this season, this may be his last chance to prove his worth, at least as a member of this team.

Shortstop

The Angels don't seem to have much faith in Brandon Wood just yet, but he can't possibly evade this list with the way he has hit in the minors. Wood, 24, has hit 22 HR and 27 2B in 424 PA this year in AAA, with a .293 AVG. His .388 wOBA is actually down from his 2008 mark of .405. He certainly has made improvements this season, though. For instance, his strikeout rate - one of his major weaknesses - has decreased by 5.4%. Wood is capable of playing at short and third base, but he might not get a great deal of playing time, as the Angels are in a pennant race, and have a solid offensive structure in place. However, as for his future, it's only a matter of time before he figures things out at the Major League level.

Outfield

There have been two rather high-profile outfield call-ups so far - John Bowker and Cameron Maybin. One is getting publicity because of how well he is hitting, and the other, because of his poor hitting relative to his expectations. Bowker is an outfielder for the Giants who also plays first base. After debuting for the Giants last year and hitting .255 with 10 HR in 350 PA, Bowker returned to AAA in 2009 and completely tore the league's pitchers to shreds. His .447 wOBA led the Pacific Coast League, and his .340 AVG, 21 HR, 22 2B, 10 SB, and 1.14 BB/K are also impressive. Considering the Giants' current situation, Bowker could certainly see major playing time in September, whether at first base or in the outfield.

Marlins' center fielder Cameron Maybin is a different story. He came into the season with all sorts of insane expectations after going 16 for 32 last September. Then he went ahead and hit .200 in his first 27 games in 2009 and got himself sent down. He hit well - .319 - while in the minors, though he only racked up 3 HR and 8 SB in 82 games. The bottom line, though, is that Maybin is still very young (22), and has time to develop into a better player. He certainly has the skills to become a very good offensive player, and the fact that this is evident at such a young age is what makes his promotion so interesting.

Thanks a lot for reading...and if you are reading, I'd really appreciate some comments :)

Check back Sunday or Monday for a September Call-Ups update.

All links lead to FanGraphs player pages.

Testing the Corrrelation Between Certain Pitching Statistics and A Team's Wins

2009-08-30T16:00:00.001-04:00

Sorry about the gigantic gap between posts. I have been on vacation for the past two weeks and just returned on Friday. I meant to post a few more times before I left, but a few different things came up and I was held back. I will try to pick up where I left off.

This mini-investigation's goal is to deduce the importance of certain pitching statistics when it comes to a team's success (whether they win or lose). I looked at 14 different pitching statistics for this experiment, some more well-known than others. These stats were updated through August 8th. I tried to stay away from stats such as runs, for they would be a little too obvious. I attempted to select statistics that signify all different things in pitching. Some of them, like FIP for instance, I will explain as we go along. Most of them, however, will be familiar or self-explanatory.

Of the 14 statistics I looked at, WHIP had the highest r squared value (0.44). This value is not particularly high, but for the purposes of this experiment, it is sufficient. The next highest was ERA at 0.36. These two graphs are shown below.

As you can see, teams that have allowed less walks, hits, and earned runs have been more successful in winning games. Only one team with 60 wins or more had a WHIP over 1.40. These relationships are not surprising, as these two statistics have emerged as two of the most prominent indicators of success in pitching. The next highest correlation was that of LOB% (the percentage of runners left on base). This makes sense, since as a pitcher, the less runners you allow to score, the better chance you have of winning. The graph is shown below.

Of the other 11 statistics, only opponent batting average had an r squared value over 0.3. Here is a list of all 14 tested statistics and their respective r squared values:

Perhaps the most intriguing statistic here is FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching. This statistic was created earlier this decade in multiple different forms. Its purpose is to evaluate a pitcher based only upon plays that he had a direct involvement in completing, or that his fielders did not participate in. It is scaled in a way to resemble ERA, so that one can determine if a pitcher is being helped or hurt by his fielding. Like ERA, a lower FIP is better. This statistic is widely referred to in the sabermentric world, though is has many limitations. The most important of these shortcomings is that it does not consider the different types of batted balls at all, so a pitcher who allows only 15% line drives, but only strikes out 2 batters for every one he walks will be disadvantaged in FIP even though he pitches to bad contact (a good thing for a pitcher). The limitations of FIP are certainly shown here, as ERA's r squared value is nearly double that of FIP.

Thanks for reading. I think I'm going to post again Wednesday or Thursday, instead of on Sunday, because I'll be visiting my family this weekend. Keep checking back for updates, though.

What did they do to deserve this?

2009-08-05T19:59:00.008-04:00

Apparently God isn't a New York Mets fan. I can't think of a better explanation for all of the trouble the team has had this year with injuries. The Mets currently have 9 players on the DL, and that doesn't include any of the players involved in the three most recent incidents. Three players have been sidelined in the past two days, each injury as strange and unexpected as the next. Even if I weren't a Mets fan I would feel bad for them. No team deserves this, even though injuries are a part of the game, and are bound to happen to everyone at some point.

This weekend I've decided on looking at the correlation between different pitching stats and wins, essentially in order to determine what is the "winning formula", as far as pitching is concerned.

The Most Productive Deals of the '09 Deadline

2009-08-01T18:59:00.009-04:00

Although Roy Halladay didn't go anywhere, there were many players switching uniforms this past week, and seemingly half of them were leaving the Pirates. Then again, Pittsburgh was able to get a whole lot of youth back for the aging contracts they gave up...I'll get to them, though. There were several deals that were completed that appear to me to particularly favor one side or the other. Below is my own ranking of the top five most productive trades that transpired over the past few days.

1. Phillies: Cliff Lee for Jason Knapp, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, and Lou Marson

Lee might not be quite as good as Roy Halladay, but he certainly will get the job done, and at a much lower price. To get the lefty, the Phillies did not have to deal any of their four top prospects that were on the table for Halladay. While the very young Knapp and Carrasco could both end up developing into solid starting pitchers, the Phillies were able to hold on to pitchers Kyle Drabek and J.A. Happ, and outfielders Dominic Brown and Michael Taylor. This certainly looks like a deal that could really help the Phillies, as it fills a need and strengthens their team heading into the final months of the season. To top it off, Philadelphia also receives Ben Francisco, a useful 27-year-old outfielder with decent power and speed. I wouldn't say this trade automatically sends them to the playoffs yet - with two months left in the season, anything can happen - but it sure does make one of the best teams even better.

2. Red Sox: Victor Martinez for Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone, and Bryan Price

The Red Sox already have one of the best lineups in baseball, but they found a way to make it better on Friday, adding Victor Martinez for young pitchers Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone, and Bryan Price. Like the Phillies, although Boston gave up three quality, young arms, they managed to get a bat that will significantly help their team for multiple years without dealing their most well-thought-of young pitchers Buccholz, Bowden, and Bard. This isn't a terrible trade for Cleveland, as they do get young pitching that can help their major league team right away in Masterson. However, this move should prove most beneficial for the Red Sox, as they acquire a player who can play catcher and first base, which gives them a great deal of versatility with Varitek, Youkilis, Lowell, and Ortiz.

3. Pirates: Their entire firesale

You might not recognize any of the players the pirates traded for this week, but chances are you will in a few years. No, they didn't land any true "top prospects", but to be honest, they didn't really lose any big players either. P Tim Alderson, P Kevin Hart, C Jeff Clement, and OF Lastings Milledge are atop the list of incoming prospects that could fill two-thirds of a 25-man roster. Getting starting pitching prospect Tim Alderson from the Giants for Freddy Sanchez was most likely the highlight of the firesale. Alderson is a 20-year-old strikethrower currently in AA, who was considered to be among San Francisco's top pitching prospects, along with Madison Bumgarner and Scott Barnes. Freddy Sanchez just isn't the kind of player that should cost a prospect like Alderson. The Pirates certainly got a good deal there. Not to mention all of the salary the Pirates got rid of this week, which should be reinvested in player development, drafting, scouting, etc. Overall, this was a positive week for the Pittsburgh Pirates, who were going nowhere this year and had no choice but to think about the future.

4. Padres: Clayton Richard, Aaron Poreda, Adam Russell, and Dexter Carter for Jake Peavy

Jake Peavy would really be a great acquisition for the White Sox, if he were healthy. The optimistic view right now is for a late August return for Peavy, who has been since early June with a strained tendon in his right ankle. However, he is still too far away from returning to accurately project a timeframe. On the other side of this deal, San Diego received four young pitchers, headed by 25-year-old lefty Clayton Richard, who has already shown signs of promise at the Major Leaguelevel, despite encountering some trouble recently in 2009. Aaron Poreda is another southpaw who is 22, and has pitched 11 innings in relief for the White Sox this season. He needs to work on his control a bit, but he has a great amount of potential. So do righties Adam Russell and Dexter Carter. The fact that the Padres were able to get essentially the same package for Peavy now, after he's been hurt for two months, as they did earlier in the season when he was healthy says a lot about how much the White Sox wanted Peavy. I still think that this trade could end up looking better for the Padres in the future.

5. Mariners: Luke French and Mauricio Robles for Jarrod Washburn

Last week I looked at Jarrod Washburn's season in my post about luck, and I came to the conclusion that he is really pitching to an ERA of about 4. That's not to say that he won't continue getting way too lucky, but let's just say that his ERA is bound to go up. Honestly, Luke French could probably pitch just as effectively as Jarrod Washburn with the same amount of defensive support - and he's 10 years younger. Plus, the Mariners landed 20-year-old southpaw Mauricio Robles, who isn't a bad prospect himself, with a 10.9 K/9 this year in A and high A. I'd say the Mariners got a pretty good return for a pitcher about to turn 34, who is going through a fluke of a season.

O.K. that's it for this post. I hope you enjoyed it. I'll write sometime early this week to announce the topic for next weekend.

xBABIP

2009-07-30T11:06:00.003-04:00

Really, the timing of my discovery of this could've been a little better, but here we go anyway...

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/simple-xbabip-calculator/

I recently found this extremely helpful tool on the internet, and interestingly enough, it has a lot to do with what I wrote about last week. Instead of looking at several different stats to predict a change in a player's numbers, xBABIP (expected BABIP) rolls everything into one statistic. Though this new stat is still being perfected, it has come a long way since its inception. The simple calculator in this excel document will predict what any batter's BABIP should be, given his batted ball statistics, and a few other stats. I suggest reading the article first, before trying out the tool; it answered a lot of my questions.

By the way, the credit for this model goes to Chris Dutton & Peter Bendix of THT, Derek Carty for posting it there, and Eno Sarris for posting the link on FanGraphs.

My post this weekend will be a trade deadline review of sorts. I'll evaluate the most important trades of the week, and tell you who got the best of each one.

Dumb Luck: Which baseball players have experienced the most fortune or misfortune this season?

2009-07-26T16:35:00.004-04:00

We all know that a .300 batting average is good, generally speaking. But can this number be deceptive sometimes? Of course. For example, a batter that hits .300 cannot normally be expected to keep that up if 50% of the balls this batter puts in play are ground balls. In this post, I'll use stats such as BABIP (batting average on balls in play) and line drive, fly ball, and ground ball percentages to uncover the luckiest and unluckiest hitters and pitchers in Major League Baseball.

In case you're unfamiliar with BABIP, I'll explain it briefly. This statistic measures a hitter's (or pitcher's) batting average (against) only on balls hit in play. So this does not factor in strikeouts, walks, or homeruns. A typical BABIP is usually around .290, so a number significantly lower or higher than that will raise a red flag. That's when one will look at batted ball percentages. A low BABIP and a high line drive (LD) % will suggest that a hitter is particularly unlucky, or that a pitcher is particularly lucky. A high BABIP and a low LD% will point to a lucky hitter or an unlucky pitcher. The average LD% in baseball in 2009 is about 19%. Anything 4 or 5% higher or lower than that would be worth noting.

Pitchers: The Fortunate

Jarrod Washburn (SEA)

Washburn, who currently has a 2.79 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP, may appear to the untrained eye to be having a career year. His ERA and WHIP are currently better than they have been at any point in his 12 year career. However, his .251 BABIP to this point is 30 points lower than his career average. When coupled with a 21.1 LD%, his current BABIP is not realistically sustainable. When his 79% LOB% (percentage of baserunners stranded) is also taken into consideration, a second-half drop off should be expected from Wahburn.

Scott Feldman (TEX)

Feldman currently holds the lead for the lowest BABIP in the Major Leagues among qualified pitchers at .237, and his general statistics show the effects. Feldman is pitching to a 3.59 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP so far in his fifth Major League season. Even with an average LD% (19.7%), Feldman's BABIP is way too low. Given his batted ball stats, and that his FIP (Fielding Independent ERA) is a full run higher than his ERA, it's safe to say that his ERA won't stay below 4.00 for too much longer.

Dan Haren (ARI)

Yes, he is considered one of the best pitchers in baseball, and rightfully so, but Haren's unusual good fortune must be taken into consideration. So far this season, Haren's BABIP sits 50 points lower than his career mark at .251. This number is not justified by his LD%, which is at 20.7% - above his career average. His impecable control gives him the ability to keep runners off the base paths, but at some point, his ground balls are going to have to find some holes more often. His historically bad second-half splits support my inclination to say that his stats will regress in August and September.

Pitchers: The Misfortunate

Jon Lester (BOS)

His stats actually look pretty decent, but they could be so much better. Despite getting batters to hit only 17% line drives, he has a robust .342 BABIP in 2009 to this date. As a ground ball pitcher who can also throw the ball by most hitters, don't be surprised if he has much more success in the future.

Max Scherzer (ARI)

Here's a story similar to Lester's: .328 BABIP, 18% line drives. He's not as strong of a pitcher as Lester, but I can still see him doing better in the near future.

Brett Anderson (OAK)

Anderson's stuff might still be developing, but there's no denying this guy is getting cheated. He's leading the Majors with a 14% LD% - in fact, he has rolled 49.5% ground balls, nearly as much as his line drives and fly balls combined - yet his BABIP is .306. That's not particularly high, but it certainly should be lower in Anderson's case. No matter what, this young pitcher has quite a bright future ahead of him.

Batters: The Fortunate

David Wright (NYM)

Wait a minute, this guy has a 24.9% LDP! Why is he considered lucky? Well, because no player has ever maintained a .416 BABIP over an entire qualified season dating back to 2002, when batted ball data was made publicly available. In fact, the only two players to have ever sustained a BABIP of .400 or more for a complete season were Jose Hernandez in 2002 (.406 BABIP; 25.5 LD%), and Ichiro Suzuki in 2004 (I'll get to him later...) Wright's .416 is unheard of and bound to come down to Earth, especially considering that his BABIP tops out at .362 among his first five Major League seasons. With a 24.9% LD%, .362 is about what his BABIP should be, so again, his BABIP will almost definitely decrease. And when that happens, his batting average will surely settle comfortably below .300. His batting on balls not put in play is far diminished from last year (increase in strikeouts, decrease in homeruns), so his normal AVG will not be able to survive the inevitable drop in BABIP, which has already begun.

Mark Reynolds (ARI)

A .368 BABIP and a 15.9 LD% simply don't go together. To make it worse for Reynolds, he has struck out 1/3 of the times he has walked up to the plate. There is hope, though, considering that the low LD% is atypical for Reynolds so far in his young career. if 2007 and 2008 were accurate showings, this number could possibly increase, holding off a significant drop in BABIP. So he can probably avoid hitting .239 again, but he almost certainly won't finish off the 2009 season hitting higher than he is now (.277).

Ichiro Suzuki (SEA)

Ichiro is an interesting case. He characteristically hits for a high BABIP without hitting many line drives. This year, the LD% is lower than it has ever been for him, at 17.7%, but his BABIP is not only high, but 25 points above his career average, at .383. Yes, his current .358 AVG should decrease, but there is a secret to Ichiro's success that not many other hitters can replicate: the infield hit. Currently, Ichiro leads the Majors in infield hits with 32 by a large margin (next is Michael Bourn with 21). His 15.8 IFH% also leads the majors. And Ichiro plays to his strengths better than any other, as he has a GB% of 50% or higher in all of his 8 Major League seasons. Could he be having some unusual luck with the occasional ground ball finding a hole? Yes, probably, but don't underestimate the impact his speed has on his batting average.

Batters: The Misfortunate

Jimmy Rollins (PHI)

Rollins is having a disappointing season thus far, but it's hard to say it's all his fault. Despite a dramatic drop from his 24% LD% in 2008, his 2009 LD% is still a somewhat respectable 19.3%. That is by no means great, but it merits more than a .249 BABIP for sure. Rollins doesn't strike out much, so he's been able to keep his batting average only 12 points lower than his BABIP, at.237. Still, his AVG could and should be higher.

Hideki Matsui (NYY)

Matsui's LD% has been climbing in recent years, and is now up to 19.2%, but for some reason his BABIP has taken a sudden 50 point dip from his career .308 clip all the way down to .254. Strange, isn't it? Consequently, his batting average is down to .252. The only other change in Matsui's hitting is that he is seemingly getting under the ball a bit more than usual. His GB% is down 7%, and his FB% is up 7% from last season. In addition, his IFFB (pop-up) percentage is up to 13.5% - almost double his career mark of 7.2%. A change in his swing may be contributing to his diminished success with balls in play, but even still, his BABIP could easily be higher than .254.

Jerry Hairston (CIN)

In 2008, Hairston was very fortunate on balls in play in the 80 games he has played. Through 82 games this season, he has not seen nearly as much luck, even with his LD% staying remarkably high at 24.5%. His BABIP has dropped 82 points from last season's - all the way down to .279, and not surprisingly, his batting average took just as much of a hit. Strangely, for a line drive hitter, he gets under the ball quite a bit, but doesn't hit for much power, in a small park no less. He has never completed a season with a single-digit IFFB% which makes his case all the more interesting. I think he certainly has the potential to hit close to .300, if not higher, for an entire season if he gets the breaks. The question is if he can minimize the pop-ups and focus on hitting line drives.

Alright, that's about it for this week's post. I hope you enjoyed reading. I'll announce the subject next weekend's post shortly.

To Start it Off...

2009-07-25T22:01:00.000-04:00

To get things started here, I'll introduce myself. My name is Will, and I guess you could say I'm an aspiring sabermetrician. More accurately, I'm a fan of the game of baseball, who happens to be highly interested in the realm of higher knowledge in baseball statistics, otherwise known as sabermetrics. I've been playing fantasy baseball for about 5 years now, and I've been pretty successful in various competitive leagues. Recently, I've been motivated to take my understanding of the game to another level, particularly in terms of statistical analysis. I've begun reading a great deal of sabermetric work, mostly on the internet, and my interest in the subject has only grown. I figured this blog would be a good way to start writing about my interests. I'm in no way a pro (yet), so if you are reading this and happen to be a pro, don't hold a grudge if something doesn't seem to make sense. Trust me, a lot of the stuff I write at first might not seem to make much sense...I'm still getting the hang of this stuff. Please leave a comment if you have anything to say - I'd appreciate the feedback.

For the most part, I'm going to try to post some sort of significant investigation each week. I'm thinking that this will be focused towards answering a specific question, which I will present the week before. Some of these might be oriented towards fantasy baseball, but not all of them will. However, everything I post here (maybe with the exception of an occasional comedy post) will focus on the sabermetric view of baseball.

I'll write my first real article tomorrow. I'll keep it simple to start, and take a look at batted ball stats in order to determine the luckiest and unluckiest hitters and pitchers of 2009.